Authors: Franc Llorens, Nicole Rübsamen, Peter Hermann, Matthias Schmitz, Anna Villar‐Piqué, Stefan Goebel, André Karch, Inga Zerr
Published: 2020-07-02
DOI: 10.1002/alz.12133
Source: Full article
AbstractIntroductionWe developed a prognostic model for overall survival after diagnosis of sporadic Creutzfeldt‐Jakob disease (sCJD) using data from a German surveillance study.MethodsWe included 1226 sCJD cases (median age 66 years, range 19–89 years; 56.8% women with information on age, sex, codon 129 genotype, 14‐3‐3 in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and CSF tau concentrations. The prognostic accuracy for overall survival was measured by the c statistics of multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. A score chart was derived to predict 6‐month survival and median survival time.ResultsA model containing age, sex, codon 129 genotype, and CSF tau (with two‐way interactions) was selected as the model with the highest c statistic (0.686, 95% confidence interval: 0.665–0.707) in a cross‐validation approach.DiscussionWe developed the first prognostic model for overall survival of sCJD patients based on readily available information only. The developed score chart serves as a hands‐on prediction tool for clinical practice.